(Istanbul, Turkey)

To North Korean watchers like me, North Korean issues often appear more important and influential than it really is. The recent local elections in Seoul proves my point. The sinking of the Cheonan ship was predicted to have a galvanizing effect on older conservative voters. This was to lead to a landslide victory by the conservative GNP. Instead, the GNP was routed in local elections. While some argue that the way the GNP handled the issue or the way it used it for its politicking backfired, I suspect the main reason is that North Korea is seldom a strong driver of voting behavior among South Koreans. Most South Koreans simply do not care much about North Korean issues.

Still, South Korean can expect conservatives to dominate for many years. I met a friend from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade yesterday who believes that South Korea will be staunchly conservative for the next presidential elections. The reason is not so much North Korea but rather impending laws giving the right to dual citizenship to some overseas Koreans. He estimates 1 million new citizens will be added among the 7 million eligible overseas Koreans. As Koreans overseas tend to be from very privileged backgrounds (which favor the GNP), my friend argues that this group will overwhelmingly vote conservative.

(Istanbul, Turkey)

On a side note, I am concerned that the scope of discretion under this law is rather wide - the citizenship will be given to people deemed “meritorious.” Given how rich businessmen in Korea who break the law are often let off for their economic contribution, I am worried about how the word “merit” will be applied.